I spent some time today listening to reaction to Obama's speech last night regarding his plans to draw down American forces in Afghanistan over the next couple of years. NPR had a panel of three guys, all of whom were members of the defense/intelligence/diplomatic establishment and it sounded to me like nothing so much as three nerdy guys who spent way too much time in someone's basement rec room playing Risk all night. They talked about a permanent outcome and competing strategies, mostly permutations of the same basic ideas; a stable democratic government, a defense force capable of insuring internal security and an economy capable of providing an increased standard of living for its people. I thought about these one by one...
A stable democractic government seems hopelessly out of reach. 80% of the country is illiterate and therefore severly challenged to have the level of understanding necessary to assess competing ideas and ideologies as proposed by various candidates. They can't read, and there isn't exactly a 46 inch flat screen in every hut so that they can even watch somebody tell them about those competing ideas. Even if that meager infrastructure was in place, are these guys politically sophisticated enough to accept the defeat of someone they supported? Or are they more likely to react to a defeat of their favored candidate by grabbing their Kalishnikovs and heading back to a familiar cave somewhere to discuss asassination plans?
But more importantly, there is absolutely no tradition of an effective central government. The place is a windswept, cold / hot barren place populated by competing, nomadic tribes who seemingly hate everyone who lives on the other side of their particular mountain range or outside their valley. They worship differently and speak different dialects. They have hated and fought each other for multiple generations and are deeply suspicious of any central authority telling them what to do. That is clearly not promising.
And it doesn't help that Karzai's government is corrupt to the core. At this point Kabul is like the rotting center of a pithy apple - no one outside the city wants anything to do with these guys except the opium overlords who need safe passage to get their crop to market. The Pakistani's don't even trust him. No, the whole idea of a "stable democractic government" seems like a stretch.
The Afghan security force is intended to be some 200,000 strong. The Taliban are estimated to number somewhere around 20,000. The last I heard the army "needs a lot of work". Without American foreign aid the government would not be able to afford to pay them and they would head back to the villages. This sounds an awful lot like the failed attempt to "Vietnamization" that conflict but with troops that are far less motivated. I don't see how this can have a good outcome.
And the economy of the country is a joke, with a GDP per capita of $1,000, 51st of 54 Asian nations. Opium poppy production accounts for over a third of GDP. 35% of the country is unemployed. When fruits and nuts, hides and pelts are the basis of your export economy, you have a problem, and that is reflected in the fact that their total exports are 2 billion dollars per year.. They struggle to provide clean drinking water, housing and electricity. The villagers welcome Aerican troops as long as we can pay them but the minute the money is cut off they couldn't care less. To think that this country can participate in the global economy is absurd.
So what is the end game for us in Afghanistan? What is the goal, the achievement of which signals success? We can look forward to none of the things that would seem to make 10 years of sacrifice - a trillion dollars and 2,000 deaths - make sense. To spend an additonal 100 billion dollars and lose mre American soldiers while we take 24 months to extricate ourselves seems utterly pointless. The Risk playing nerds can argue over the efficacy of this strategy or that troop level or how many Taliban remain and congratulate themselves over what they characterize as victories and progress but it is ultimately an illusion that they create and maintain so that they can write books and become fellows of various think tanks and which is as far removed from reality as Hogwarts. They bravely talk about "polls" of everyday Afghans that indicate that a majority want us to stay, ignoring that 90% of the country doesn't have electricity, let alone a telephone - like they are sitting around watching American Idol in the evening but pause the DVR to answer a few questions about the occupation force patroling their dirt roads and villages. Right...
The reality is that this is a 15th century country in every way except for Kabul. These guys just want to herd their goats, pray 5 times a day, smoke a bowl, eat their goat and go to sleep. That we want to superimpose an entirely foreign and, in large part, unwanted way of life on them begs the question; what the hell are we thinking? Why?
A stable democractic government seems hopelessly out of reach. 80% of the country is illiterate and therefore severly challenged to have the level of understanding necessary to assess competing ideas and ideologies as proposed by various candidates. They can't read, and there isn't exactly a 46 inch flat screen in every hut so that they can even watch somebody tell them about those competing ideas. Even if that meager infrastructure was in place, are these guys politically sophisticated enough to accept the defeat of someone they supported? Or are they more likely to react to a defeat of their favored candidate by grabbing their Kalishnikovs and heading back to a familiar cave somewhere to discuss asassination plans?
But more importantly, there is absolutely no tradition of an effective central government. The place is a windswept, cold / hot barren place populated by competing, nomadic tribes who seemingly hate everyone who lives on the other side of their particular mountain range or outside their valley. They worship differently and speak different dialects. They have hated and fought each other for multiple generations and are deeply suspicious of any central authority telling them what to do. That is clearly not promising.
And it doesn't help that Karzai's government is corrupt to the core. At this point Kabul is like the rotting center of a pithy apple - no one outside the city wants anything to do with these guys except the opium overlords who need safe passage to get their crop to market. The Pakistani's don't even trust him. No, the whole idea of a "stable democractic government" seems like a stretch.
The Afghan security force is intended to be some 200,000 strong. The Taliban are estimated to number somewhere around 20,000. The last I heard the army "needs a lot of work". Without American foreign aid the government would not be able to afford to pay them and they would head back to the villages. This sounds an awful lot like the failed attempt to "Vietnamization" that conflict but with troops that are far less motivated. I don't see how this can have a good outcome.
And the economy of the country is a joke, with a GDP per capita of $1,000, 51st of 54 Asian nations. Opium poppy production accounts for over a third of GDP. 35% of the country is unemployed. When fruits and nuts, hides and pelts are the basis of your export economy, you have a problem, and that is reflected in the fact that their total exports are 2 billion dollars per year.. They struggle to provide clean drinking water, housing and electricity. The villagers welcome Aerican troops as long as we can pay them but the minute the money is cut off they couldn't care less. To think that this country can participate in the global economy is absurd.
So what is the end game for us in Afghanistan? What is the goal, the achievement of which signals success? We can look forward to none of the things that would seem to make 10 years of sacrifice - a trillion dollars and 2,000 deaths - make sense. To spend an additonal 100 billion dollars and lose mre American soldiers while we take 24 months to extricate ourselves seems utterly pointless. The Risk playing nerds can argue over the efficacy of this strategy or that troop level or how many Taliban remain and congratulate themselves over what they characterize as victories and progress but it is ultimately an illusion that they create and maintain so that they can write books and become fellows of various think tanks and which is as far removed from reality as Hogwarts. They bravely talk about "polls" of everyday Afghans that indicate that a majority want us to stay, ignoring that 90% of the country doesn't have electricity, let alone a telephone - like they are sitting around watching American Idol in the evening but pause the DVR to answer a few questions about the occupation force patroling their dirt roads and villages. Right...
The reality is that this is a 15th century country in every way except for Kabul. These guys just want to herd their goats, pray 5 times a day, smoke a bowl, eat their goat and go to sleep. That we want to superimpose an entirely foreign and, in large part, unwanted way of life on them begs the question; what the hell are we thinking? Why?
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